A Multivariate Model for Repeated Failure Time Measurements

A parametric multivariate failure time distribution is derived from a frailty-type model with a particular frailty distribution. It covers as special cases certain distributions which have been used for multivariate survival data in recent years. Some properties of the distribution are derived: its marginal and conditional distributions lie within the parametric family, and association between the component variates can be positive or, to a limited extent, negative. The simple closed form of the survivor function is useful for right-censored data, as occur commonly in survival analysis, and for calculating uniform residuals. Also featured is the distribution of ratios of paired failure times. The model is applied to data from the literature     

Information and communications technologies, strategic asymmetry and national security

In the history of warfare, there are a number of examples of strategic uses of asymmetric technologies. Consistent with history and theory, individuals, organizations and nations have spotted opportunities to employ information and communications technologies to gain and exploit asymmetric advantages and to counter asymmetric weaknesses. This article discusses various asymmetries associated with institutions, nations and organizations that influence the ICT-national security nexus. Regulative, normative and cognitive institutions in a country provide various mechanisms that affect the nature of positive and negative asymmetries. Nations and organizations also differ in terms of their capability to assimilate ICT tools to gain positive asymmetries and deal with vulnerabilities of negative asymmetries. Integrative approaches that combine policy and technological measures at various levels are likely to make the world more secure.     

A Macro-Economic Framework for Evaluation of Cyber Security Risks Related to Protection of Intellectual Property

The article is based on the premise that, from a macro-economic viewpoint, cyber attacks with long-lasting effects are the most economically significant, and as a result require more attention than attacks with short-lasting effects that have historically been more represented in literature. In particular, the article deals with evaluation of cyber security risks related to one type of attack with long-lasting effects, namely, theft of intellectual property (IP) by foreign perpetrators. An International Consequence Analysis Framework is presented to determine (1) the potential macro-economic consequences of cyber attacks that result in stolen IP from companies in the United States, and (2) the likely sources of such attacks. The framework presented focuses on IP theft that enables foreign companies to make economic gains that would have otherwise benefited the U.S. economy. Initial results are presented.     

生存理性如何影响农户的差别化生产

在食品安全威胁下,农户重新定义了“为自家生产”和“为市场生产”的差别化生产行为。基于经济理性行为假设认为农户存在以确保自家食品安全为动机的生存理性。根据在5省区收集的827份农村入户调研数据,对农户差别化生产行为进行具体分析,描述了差别化生产行为总体特征,并测量农户食品安全自我保护意识、威胁感知程度和信息渠道等因素。运用Probit模型验证了命题：以食品安全自我保护意识为特征的生存理性,支配了农户为确保自家消费安全而进行的差别化生产。     

社交媒体存在的治安问题探析

目前,社交媒体已经成为人们十分青睐的社交软件,但由于其独特的传播机制和特点,违法犯罪分子将其作为开展不法 活动的温床,使人们的安全感受到严重影响。这主要体现在四个方面：一是恐怖组织和个人将社交媒体作为开展恐怖活动宣 传、组织和行动的工具;二是违法犯罪分子利用社交媒体实施色情、赌博和诈骗等犯罪;三是社交媒体成为引发违法犯罪的桥 梁;四是社交媒体在引导网络舆情的方向中起到了重要作用。     

清洁提单保函与交易安全研究

托运人向承运人开具清洁提单保函、承运人向托运人签发清洁提单的做法在当前国际货物海运中极为普遍。国际公约、国际组织规则、各国法律以及司法实践对清洁提单保函的性质、效力等仍存在诸多争议。在国际货物海运中,因清洁提单保函引发的纠纷层出不穷。尝试厘清清洁提单保函的性质和效力,探讨清洁提单保函无效的法律后果及其对交易安全的影响,提出针对性的保护方式,旨为应对清洁提单保函带来的问题提供参考。     

星星之火，何以燎原——论社会保障国际合作的兴起与发展

由于海外劳工在境外就业期间往往会遭遇社会保障双重缺失、社会保障双重缴费以及社会保障待遇支付障碍等诸多困境,使得西欧国家于20世纪初开始探索开展社会保障国际合作,主要方式是国家之间签署社会保障国际协定,合理地承担和分享海外劳工社会保障的责任与效益。经过一个多世纪的发展,社会保障国际合作开始由探索时期步入成熟时期,不仅在覆盖区域、惠及人群以及主要内容方面实现了由小到大、由少到多和由点到面的发展,而且在合作方式上实现了由双边协定到双边与多边协定并举的发展,进而成为了全球各国维护海外劳工社会保障权益的有效途径。     

Identity,security and the nation: understanding the South Korean response to North Korean defectors

From the Cold War era of the ‘veteran heroes’ to the present view of escaped North Koreans in terms more akin to ‘refugees’ and sometimes even just ‘migrants’, perceptions of North Korean defectors in South Korea have changed as swiftly as the number and origins of Northerners entering the South have expanded. At the same time, government policy for these ethnic ‘brethren’ has evolved considerably, particularly as South Korea has seen fundamental shifts in its independent identity, with important repercussions for the way its citizens view themselves as a collective. This article explores some of the key influences behind changes to policy and perceptions regarding North Korean people in South Korea over the period from 1997 to 2012, by applying international relations theory on national identity and its role in policy formation and change through the need to secure different parameters within that identity.     

从苏童的《妻妾成群》探究中国的女性权力问题

本文分析苏童小说《妻妾成群》,深刻地揭示了女性生存权力的抗争。     

A Security Model and Legal Guarantee for Chinese Maritime Shipping: As Exemplified in the Response to Piracy along the 21st Century Maritime Silk Road

The Belt and Road Initiative is an important decision for the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation. Maritime security has a significant place in this process. In recent years, there have been frequent violent terrorist incidents at sea, including piracy, armed hijackings and terrorist attacks, posing a dire threat to both international and Chinese maritime transport interests and seriously challenging the fulfillment of the maritime part of the “Belt and Road Initiative.” Five direct measures can be taken to protect ocean shipping from violence at sea. One example is the defensive measures taken against the Somali pirates. The employment of armed guards from professional security companies on board ship is an effective model for guaranteeing maritime security; it not only meets the standards of international law, but is also legally permitted in many developed countries and regions, and is thus strategically significant for overall Chinese maritime security. In the Chinese context, this model carries its own legal risks. We should embrace a new approach to national security law, strengthen legal guarantees and make concerted efforts to provide warship (military aircraft) escorts to jointly build an optimum model of Chinese maritime security in order to ensure the realization of core Chinese maritime interests.